Renewable Energy Futures
The first edition REN21 Renewables Global Futures Report was published in 2013. Part of that report referenced and summarized over 50 of the leading global and national scenarios for the future of renewable energy that were published in 2010-2012. Most of the perspectives, trends, and visions of the future captured in that report are still valid today and serve as a good foundation for understanding the future of renewable energy. Of course, the future keeps changing. Since 2013, dozens of organizations across the world have published a huge number of new or updated scenarios on the future of renewable energy. So this page has been updated to keep track of these new publications. In addition, this page still provides links to historical reports published before the release of the Global Futures Report covering the period 2007-2011. Finally, the Martinot et al (2007) comprehensive review paper linked below still provides relevant analytical background for thinking about renewable energy futures, along with many pre-2007 historical references linked at the bottom of this page.
New Scenarios (2016-2017)
Scenarios (2013-2015)
Scenarios (2010-2012) Used in Writing the Renewables Global Futures Report
Other Selected Reports (2007-2011)
Resources and Web Sites Devoted to 100% Renewable Energy Futures
Comprehensive Review Paper (Martinot et al 2007) and Literature Cited
NEW SCENARIOS (2016-2017)
Global
World Energy Outlook 2016, International Energy Agency (Paris: IEA, 2016), 684 pp. Notably forecasts that by 2040 in the New Policies Scenario, renewables will account for 19% of the worldÅfs total primary energy demand, and for 37% of the worldÅfs electricity generation (against 14% and 23%, respectively, in 2014).
Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2016: Market Analysis and Forecasts to 2021, International Energy Agency (Paris: IEA, 2016), 282 pp. Examines in details questions about whether renewables are on track to reach targets set by the Paris Agreement by looking closely at how renewable energy in the power, heat and transportation sectors will evolve over the next five years in the face of lower fossil fuel prices. Explores recent renewable deployment and policy trends across different regions and countries, particularly as costs for wind and solar PV continue to fall.
Energy Technology Perspectives 2017 ? Catalysing Energy Technology Transformations, International Energy Agency (Paris: IEA, 2017), 443 pp. Focuses on the opportunities and challenges of scaling and accelerating the deployment of clean energy technologies, which includes looking at more ambitious scenarios than the IEA has produced before.
Remap: Roadmap for A Renewable Energy Future, 2016 Edition, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2016), 172 pp. Provides an in-depth perspective on the energy transition in 40 economies, representing 80% of global energy use. It offers concrete technology options and outlines solutions to accelerate renewable energy growth.
New Energy Outlook 2017, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (London: BNEF, 2017). Is BNEF's annual long-term economic forecast of the worldÅfs power sector. Notably forecasts that renewables are set to represent almost 75% of the $10.2 trillion the world will invest in new power generating technology until 2040, thanks to rapidly falling costs for solar and wind power, and a growing role for batteries, including electric vehicle batteries, in balancing supply and demand.
BP Energy Outlook 2017, BP (London: BP, 2017), 104 pp. Considers a base case, outlining the 'most likely' path for global energy markets over the next 20 years based on assumptions and judgements about future changes in policy, technology and the economy, and develops a number of alternative cases to explore key uncertainties. By 2035, renewables are forecast to account for about 17% of the world's primary energy consumption, and 36% of power consumption.
2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, ExxonMobil (Irving, Texas: ExxonMobil, 2017), 52 pp. ExxonMobil's updated long-term global view of energy demand and supply forecasts renewables to account for 15% of the world's primary energy demand in 2040. The share of renewables in power generation is expected to be 17%.
Energy Perspectives 2017 - Long-term macro and market outlook, Statoil (Stavanger, Norway: Statoil, 2017), 60 pp. In the "Renewal" scenario, forecasts that renewables could meet roughly 24% of global total primary energy demand in 2030 and 36% in 2050, up from about 14% in 2014.
A better life with a healthy planet: Pathways to net-zero emissions, Royal Dutch Shell (The Hague, the Netherlands: Shell, 2016), 49 pp. A supplement to the Shell New Lens Scenarios published in 2013. Attempts to answer the fundamental question; how could the world meet future energy demand while reducing net carbon emissions to zero?
International Energy Outlook 2016, United States Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration (Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOE - EIA, 2016), 290 pp. In the Reference case, forecasts that in 2040 renewables will account for 16% of the worldÅfs total energy consumption, and 31% of electric power consumption.
World Energy Scenarios 2016: The grand transition, World Energy Council (London: WEC, 2016), 138 pp. Presents three scenarios; Modern Jazz, which represents a Åedigitally disrupted,Åf innovative, and market-driven world, Unfinished Symphony, a world in which more ÅeintelligentÅf and sustainable economic growth models emerge as the world drives to a low carbon future, and a more fragmented scenario called Hard Rock, which explores the consequences of weaker and unsustainable economic growth with inward-looking policies. % In the Unfinished Symphony scenario, renewables share in electricity generation reaches 63% in 2060.
Global Wind Energy Outlook 2016, Global Wind Energy Council/University of Technology, Sydney: Institute for Sustainable Futures (Brussels/Sydney: GWEC/UTS:ISF, 2016), 44 pp. The Advanced Scenario shows that wind power could reach more than 2,000 GW by 2030 (compared with 433 GW in 2015) and supply up to 18% of global electricity. By 2050, with close to 6,000 GW, wind power could provide 36% of global electricity supply.
Global Market Outlook for Solar Power / 2017-2021, SolarPower Europe (Brussels: SolarPower Europe, 2017), 60 pp. Expects total global installed PV capacity to exceed 700 GW in 2021, compared with 307 GW at the end of 2016.
Regional and National
Americas
Annual Energy Outlook 2017 with Projections to 2050, United States Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration (Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOE - EIA, 2017), 64 pp. Provides modeled projections of U.S. energy markets through 2050. In the Reference case, Renewables will account for 15% of the country's energy consumption in 2050, compared with 8% in 2015. In addition, the renewable share of total electricity generation grows from 14% in 2015 to 31% in 2050.
2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Golden, CO: NREL, 2016), 60 pp. Presents an examination of some of the key aspects of the change occurring, or anticipated to occur, in the power sector over the next several decades.
Mexico Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency (Paris: IEA, 2016), 129 pp. Notably forecasts that by 2040 in the New Policies Scenario, renewables will account for 14% of MexicoÅfs total primary energy demand, and for 37% of the countryÅfs electricity generation (against 9% and 17%, respectively, in 2014).
Energy [R]evolution for a Brazil with 100% clean and renewable energy (translated Summary), Greenpeace (Sao Paulo: Greenpeace, 2016), 96 pp. Shows how Brazil can achieve a 100% renewable energy mix, and how a system based only on these sources would operate.
REmap 2030 ? Renewable Energy Prospects: Dominican Republic, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2016), 112 pp. Demonstrates that renewables could reach 27% of the country's total final energy consumption in 2030. By 2030, renewables could also account for 44% of electricity generation.
Lights on? Energy needs in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2040, Inter-American Development Bank (Washington, D.C.: IDB, 2016), 39 pp. Intends to answer how much energy is likely to be needed in Latin America and the Caribbean through 2040.
Europe
EU Reference Scenario 2016 Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions Trends to 2050, European Commission (Brussels/Luxembourg: EU Commission, 2016), 220 pp. Forecasts that renewables share in EU gross energy consumption could more than double between 2015 and 2050 from 12% to 25%. Renewables share in gross electricity generation would account for 55% in 2050, compared with 29% in 2015.
Unleashing EuropeÅfs offshore wind potential, WindEurope (Brussels: WindEurope, 2017), 64 pp. Develops two scenarios for offshore wind power in Europe to 2030: ÅgBaselineÅh and ÅgUpside.Åh At the end of the outlook period, offshore wind power capacity could reach 64GW and 86GW, respectively, meeting 7% and 11% of EUÅfs electricity demand.
Future Energy Scenarios, National Grid (Warwick, United Kingdom: National Grid, 2017), 119 pp. Shows a range of plausible and credible pathways for the future of energy for the United Kingdom, from today out to 2050.
Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016, Cities, flexibility and pathways to carbon-neutrality
REmap 2030 ? Renewable Energy Prospects for the Russian FederationInternational Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2017), 92 pp. Demonstrates that renewables could reach 11% of Russia's total final energy consumption in 2030. By 2030, renewables could also account for 29% of power generation.
Asia-Pacific
APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 6th Edition, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation/Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (Singapore/Tokyo: APEC/APERC, 2016). Forecasts that the share of renewables in APECÅfs electricity generation will increase from 16% in 2010 to 24% in 2040.
Asia/World Energy Outlook 2016 ? Consideration of 3EÅfs+S under new energy circumstances in the world -, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (Tokyo: IEEJ, 2016), 256 pp. Attempts to indicate a prescription for resolving some of the great energy challenges facing society.
Reinventing Fire China (Executive Summary), China Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission/Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory/Rocky Mountain Institute (Beijing/Berkeley, CA/Boulder, CO: China ERI NDRC/LBNL/RMI, 2016), 21 pp. Develops a roadmap to slash ChinaÅfs carbon emissions and energy use by 2050, all at a net economic benefit.
China Renewable Energy Outlook 2016, China National Renewable Energy Center (Beijing: CNREC, 2016), 108 pp. In the ÅgHigh RE PenetrationÅh scenario renewables of power generation share reaches 53% in 2030, compared with 25% in 2015.
Long-Term Scenarios for Decarbonizing Japan (Executive Summary), World Wildlife Fund Japan (Tokyo: WWF Japan, 2017), 10 pp. Notably develops a Åg100% Renewable Energy ScenarioÅh assuming that in 2050 all of JapanÅfs energy is supplied by renewable energy sources.
REmap ? Renewable Energy Prospects for India, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2017), 124 pp. Demonstrates that renewables could reach 26% of India's total final energy consumption in 2030. By 2030, renewables could also account for 35% of power generation.
Indian Wind Energy 2016: A brief outlook, Global Wind Energy Council (Brussels: GWEC, 2017), 20 pp. Examines the current status of wind power development in India, assesses the potential for future growth, and highlights the socio-economic, environmental and energy security benefits.
REmap 2030 ? Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEANInternational Renewable Energy Agency/ASEAN Centre for Energy (Abu Dhabi/Jakarta: IRENA/ACE, 2016), 108 pp. Demonstrates that renewables could reach 19% of ASEAN's total final energy consumption in 2025. By 2025, renewables could also account for 35% of electricity generation.
REmap ? Renewable Energy Prospects: Indonesia, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2017), 108 pp. Demonstrates that renewables could reach 23% of Indonesia's total final energy consumption in 2030. By 2030, renewables could also account for 38% of power generation.
Global
World Energy Outlook 2015, International Energy Agency (Paris: IEA, 2015), 718 pp. Notably forecasts that by 2040, renewables-based generation reaches a share of 50% in the European Union, around 30% in China and Japan, and above 25% in the United States and India. The Executive Summary of the report is available for free in twelve different languages.
Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2015: Market Analysis and Forecasts to 2020, International Energy Agency (Paris: IEA, 2015). Assesses market trends for renewables in the electricity, transport and heat sectors, identifying drivers and challenges to deployment, and making projections through 2020.
Energy Technology Perspectives 2015 - Mobilising Innovation to Accelerate Climate Action, International Energy Agency (Paris: IEA, 2015), 418 pp. Examines innovation in the energy technology sector and seeks to increase confidence in the feasibility of achieving short- and long-term climate change mitigation targets through effective research, development, demonstration and deployment.
REmap 2030 ? A Renewable Energy Roadmap, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2014), 188 pp. Provides a plan to double the share of renewable energy in the worldÅfs energy mix between 2010 and 2030. Demonstrates that renewables could reach more than 36% of the world's total final energy consumption in 2030. By 2030, renewables could also account for 44% of power generation and 17% of transportation (fuels & electricity), notably.
New Energy Outlook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (London: BNEF, 2015). Is Bloomberg New Energy Finance's annual long-term view of how the world's power markets will evolve in the future. Notably forecasts that by 2040, renewables will command just under 60% of the 9,786GW of new generating capacity and two-thirds of the $12.2 trillion of investment.
Energy Perspectives 2015 - Long-term macro and market outlook, Statoil (Stavanger, Norway: Statoil, 2015), 60 pp. In the "Renewal" scenario, forecasts that renewables could meet roulghly 28% of the World's energy needs in 2040, up from about 13% in 2012.
New Lens Scenarios a Shift in Perspective for a World in Transition, Royal Dutch Shell (The Hague, the Netherlands: Shell, 2013), 48 pp. Considers two scenarios; "Mountains" and "Oceans," which provide an analysis of current trends and their likely trajectory into the future. In these scenarios, renewables reach a 30-40% share of total energy by 2060. By the 2070s solar PV becomes the world's largest energy source in the "Oceans" scenario.
2013 BP Energy Outlook 2030, BP (London: BP, 2013), 86 pp. Contains BP's projections of future energy trends and factors that could affect them, based on the oil and gas major views of likely economic and population growth and developments in policy and technology. BP forecasts that about 13% and 26%, respectively, of the world's primary energy demand and power supply will be met by renewables in 2030. In the transportation sector, the shares of biofuels and electricity will reach only 5% and 1% by 2030.
2013 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, ExxonMobil (Irving, Texas: ExxonMobil, 2013), 54 pp. Assesses future trends in energy supply, demand and technology to help guide the long-term investments that underpin ExxonMobil's business strategy. The oil and gas major forecasts that 15% and 16%, respectively, of the world's primary energy demand and power supply will be met by renewables in 2040. Electric and plug-in hybrids vehicles are expected to account for about 5% of the fleet, or around 10% of new car sales in 2040.
International Energy Outlook 2014, United States Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration (Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOE - EIA, 2014), 62 pp. In the Reference case, forecasts that biofuels will account for less than 3% of the World's liquid fuels production in 2040.
Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015, Greenpeace/Global Wind Energy Council/SolarPower Europe (Amsterdam & Hamburg/Brussels: Greenpeace/GWEC/SolarPower Europe, 2015), 364 pp. Develops three scenarios; a "Reference Scenario," a "Revolution Scenario," and an "Advanced Revolution Scenario." In the "Revolution Scenario" renewables reach 76% and 93%, respectively, of the World's primary energy demand and electricity generation in 2050.
World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050, World Energy Council (London: WEC, 2013), 284 pp. Assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario. The share of renewables is projected to reach almost 20% ("Jazz") and 30% ("Symphony") of the total primary energy supply mix in 2050 (up from 15% in 2010).
Global Wind Energy Outlook 2014, Global Wind Energy Council/Greenpeace (Brussels/Amsterdam: /GWECGreenpeace, 2014), 60 pp. Shows that wind power could reach 2,000 GW by 2030 (compared with 318 GW in 2013), and supply up to 17-19% of global electricity. By 2050, wind power could provide 25-30% of global electricity supply.
Global Market Outlook for Solar Power / 2015-2019, SolarPower Europe (Brussels: SolarPower Europe, 2015), 32 pp. Forecasts global solar PV cumulative installed capacity to reach between 396 GW and 540 GW by 2019, with a medium scenario indicating around 450 GW (compared with 178 GW at the end of 2014).
Wind Energy 2050: On the shape of near 100% Renewable Energy Grid, World Wind Energy Association (Bonn, Germany: WWEA, 2015), 84 pp. A futuristic assessment not only of the wind power capacities that can come up by the year 2050 but also about arriving at an understanding of the evolution of the electricity grid in conjunction with evolving wind technologies and other ancillaries and systems and also with the evolution in grid management strategies to deliver uninterrupted power to consumers in a near 100% RE Grid.
Transition to Sustainable Buildings: Strategies and Opportunities to 2050, International Energy Agency (Paris: IEA, 2013), 290 pp. Presents scenarios and strategies to 2050, and demonstrates how to reach deep energy and emissions reduction through a combination of best available technologies and public policy.
Road transport: the Cost of Renewable Solutions, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2013), 83 pp. Advanced biofuels, electric vehicles and biomethane for transport could be competitive against fossil-fuel transport options by 2020 in an increasing number of market segments, as long as support policies are enhanced and expanded.
Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012: An Overview, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2013), 92 pp. Dramatic falls in cost make renewables increasingly competitive with fossil fuels across the world, and the least-cost option in a growing number of markets. The technologies with the largest cost reduction potential are CSP, solar PV and wind.
Annual Energy Outlook 2015 with Projections to 2040, United States Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration (Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOE - EIA, 2015), 154 pp. Presents long-term annual projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2040 for the U.S. energy markets. In the Reference case, renewables will account for 10% of the country's primary energy consumption, compared with 8% in 2013. In addition, the renewable share of total electricity generation grows from 13% in 2013 to 18% in 2040 driven by expansion of solar PV and wind power.
2015 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 - U.S. Edition, ExxonMobil (Irving, Texas: ExxonMobil, 2015), 20 pp. This outlook focuses on energy developments in the U.S. by 2040. The oil and gas company estimates that renewables will account for 9% of the country's primary energy demand by the end of the outlook period.
Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable USA Energy Outlook, Greenpeace/Global Wind Energy Council (Washington, DC/Brussels: Greenpeace/GWEC, 2014), 87 pp. Develops a "Reference Scenario" and a "Revolution Scenario." In the "Revolution Scenario" renewables reach 92% and 97%, respectively, of the USA's final energy demand and electricity generation in 2050.
Renewable Energy Prospects: United States of America, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2015), 120 pp. In its REmap scenario for the United States of America, the IRENA shows that renewables could meet 27% of the country's total final energy consumption in 2030. Under this scenario by 2030, the share of renewables in power generation and transportation will be 48% and 14% (including electricity), respectively.
Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States, Sustainable Development Solutions Network/Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Paris-New York-New Delhi/Paris: SDSN/IDDRI, 2014), 100 pp. Notably developes a "High Renewables" scenario in which wind and solar power account for over 60% and 15% of the United States' electricity generation in 2050.
Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan, United States Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration (Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOE - EIA, 2015), 103 pp. Finds out that under the Clean Power Plan Base Policy case, the main compliance strategy to lower emissions rates as the proposed rule comes into effect is to increase natural gas-fired generation to displace and ultimately surpass coal-fired generation. Later, as more wind and solar capacity are added, renewable generation also surpasses coal-fired generation (27% of electricity generation for renewables in 2040 against 26% for coal).
Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2014, European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (Brussels: ENTSO-E, 2014), 506 pp. Explains how ENTSO-E proposes to integrate by 2030 up to 60% of renewable energy, respecting cost-efficiency and security through the planned strengthening of Europe's electricity power grid.
Roadmap for Europe, Towards a Sustainable and Independent Energy Supply: The Energy [R]evolution for the EU 28, Greenpeace (Brussels: Greenpeace, 2014), 38 pp. Develops three scenarios: one based on the Commission's scenario (reference) and two based on the "Revolution" scenario: "high renewables" and "high efficiency." In the "high renewables" and "high efficiency" scenarios renewables reach about 90% of the EU 28's final energy demand and at least 95% of its electricity generation by 2050.
Renewable Energy: a 2030 Scenario for the EU, Ecofys (Utrecht, the Netherlands: Ecofys, 2013), 48 pp. Derives an energy scenario for the EU 27 for 2030, consistent with WWF's global The Energy Report: 100% Renewable Energy by 2050 vision for a fully renewable global energy system by 2050. Forecasts that the share of renewables in the EU's energy mix will reach 41% by 2030. Projects renewables to meet 65% of the EU's electricity needs in 2030.
Power Choices Reloaded: EuropeÅfs Lost Decade? ? Key Messages, Union of the Electricity Industry (Brussels: EURELECTRIC, 2013), 10 pp. Revisits EURELECTRICÅfs 2009 model in light of changing economic and political assumptions. Notably shows that sooner or later the 2050 goal will require a major reform of the entire European and national framework of low-carbon policies.
Wind Energy Scenarios for 2030, European Wind Energy Association (Brussels: EWEA, 2015), 16 pp. Develops three growth scenarios for wind power in the European Union to 2030. The central scenario expects 320 GW of wind installations to produce 778 TWh meeting 24.4% of electricity consumption in 2030.
Deep Water the Next Step for Offshore Wind Energy, European Wind Energy Association (Brussels: EWEA, 2013), 52 pp. Includes analyses and projections for offshore wind power in Europe. By 2030, EWEA forecasts 150 GW of installed offshore wind capacity in Europe (up from about 5 GW at the end of 2012). By 2050 offshore wind could reach 460 GW and contribute to a European power supply met 50% by wind.
Technical and Economic Analysis of the European Electricity System with 60% RES, Electricite de France Research and Development (Paris: EDF R&D, 2015), 25 pp. Examines the impacts of the integration of a large share of variable renewable generation into the generation mix of the European interconnected electricity system.
Renewable Energy Prospects: Germany, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2015), 143 pp. In its REmap scenario for Germany, the IRENA shows that renewables could meet 37% of the country's total final energy consumption in 2030. Under this scenario by 2030, the share of renewables in electricity generation will be 65%.
Generation Adequacy Report 2014 on the Electricity Supply-Demand Balance in France, Reseau de Transport d'Electricite (Paris: RTE, 2014), 184 pp. Notably develops four long term scenarios in which renewables account between roughly 25% and 40% of France's electricity generation in 2030.
Future Energy Scenarios, National Grid (Warwick, United Kingdom: National Grid, 2015), 228 pp. Provides a range of credble futures for the energy sector in Great Britain based on a set of scenarios that are projected out from the present to 2050.
Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives, Pathways to a Carbon Neutral Energy Future, International Energy Agency/Nordic Energy Research (Paris/Oslo: IEA/Norden, 2013), 211 pp. Assesses how the Nordic region (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden) can achieve a carbon-neutral energy system by 2050. Three scenarios are developed: the "4 Degree Celcius Scenario," "2 Degree Celcius Scenario," and the "Nordic Carbon Neutral Scenario." In the "Nordic Carbon Neutral Scenario" renewables meet about 60% of the primary energy needs of the region in 2050. Possible achievements in the electricity, heating, industrial, transportation, and buildings sectors are also described.
Renewable Energy Prospects: Poland, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2015), 56 pp. In its REmap scenario for Poland, the IRENA shows that renewables could meet 25% of the country's total final energy consumption in 2030. Under this scenario by 2030, the share of renewables in power generation and transportation will be 38% and 12% (including electricity), respectively.
Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable Poland Energy Outlook, Greenpeace/Global Wind Energy Council/European Renewable Energy Council (Warszawa/Brussels: Greenpeace/GWEC/EREC, 2013), 98 pp. Develops a "Reference Scenario" and a "Revolution Scenario." In the "Revolution Scenario" renewables reach 66% and 88%, respectively, of Poland's primary energy demand and electricity generation in 2050.
Comprehensive Modeling and Analysis of a Future German Energy System with a Dominant Supply from Renewable Energies, Henning HM. Presented at 2nd Solar District Heating Conf., 3-4 June, 2014, Hamburg, Germany
Crucial Energy Choices in Belgium - An Investigation of the Options: Our Energy Future, 3E for Greenpeace, BBL, and WWF (Brussels: 3E, 2014), 42 pp. Analyse possible energy scenarios for the future of the electricity sector in Belgium. Notably finds out in the "Alternative Scenario," that about half of the country's installed capacity could be non-hydro renewables by 2030, essentially wind and solar power.
REmap 2030 ? Renewable Energy Prospects for Ukraine, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2015), 53 pp. Demonstrates that renewables could reach more than 21% of the countryÅfs total final energy consumption in 2030. By 2030, renewables could also account for 25% of power generation.
Energy [R]evolution a Sustainable Netherlands Energy Outlook, Greenpeace/Global Wind Energy Council/European Renewable Energy Council (Amsterdam/Brussels: Greenpeace/GWEC/EREC, 2013), 115 pp. Develops a "Reference Scenario" and a "Revolution Scenario." In the "Revolution Scenario" renewables reach 54% and 78%, respectively, of the Netherlands' energy demand and electricity power generation in 2050. Possible achievements in the transportation, heating and industrial sectors, as well as in terms of employment, notably, are also described.
Renewable Energy Roadmap for the Republic of Cyprus, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2014), 16 pp. Shows that renewable energy, and solar PV particularly, could form a major part of the countryÅfs future power generation mix (between 25% and 40% in 2030) and thus greatly reduce energy import dependence while lowering the cost of electricity generation.
Energy [R]evolution Uno Scenario Energetico Sostenibile per l'Italia (in Italian), Greenpeace/Global Wind Energy Council/European Renewable Energy Council (Roma/Brussels: Greenpeace/GWEC/EREC, 2013), 36 pp. Develops a "Reference Scenario" and a "Revolution Scenario." In the "Revolution Scenario" renewables reach 80% and 95%, respectively, of Italy's primary energy demand and electricity generation in 2050.
Un mix electrique 100% renouvelable ?: Analyses et optimisations ("A Hundred 100% Renewable Electricity Mix: Analyses and Optimizations," in French), Agence de lÅfEnvironnement et de la Maitrise de lÅfEnergie (Angers, France: ADEME, 2015), 166 pp. Demonstrates the feasibility of a 100% renewable electricity mix for France by 2050. One of the key findings of the report is that it would cost just a little more for France to get all its electricity from renewables compared with a 40% share.
Energy Scenarios for 2020, 2035 and 2050 (in Danish), Danish Energy Agency (Copenhagen: DEA, 2014), 104 pp. An energy-scenario report including five sub-analyses on the energy system of the future in Denmark. Analyses the challenges that need to be managed up to 2050 as the country phases out fossil fuels and replaced them with renewables.
China 2050 High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario and Roadmap Study, Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission (Beijing: ERI NDRC, 2015), 42 pp. Analyzes how China can gradually phase out fossil energy, especially coal, from its leading role in China's energy development, and give low-carbon green electricity a prime part to play. Under a high renewable energy penetration scenario renewables will account for 60% of China's energy consumption and 86% of its electricity consumption by 2050.
China's Future Generation: Assessing the Maximum Potential for Renewable Power Sources in China to 2050, World Wildlife Fund (Annapolis, MD: WWF, 2014), 70 pp. Shows that even under conservative assumptions about the future cost of renewable electricity technology and innovation potential, a renewable power future is within reach in China.
2015 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 - China Edition, ExxonMobil (Irving, Texas: ExxonMobil, 2015), 32 pp. This outlook focuses on energy developments in China by 2040. Renewables are expected to account for 12% of the country's primary energy demand by the end of the outlook period.
Renewable Energy Prospects: China, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2014), 116 pp. In its REmap scenario for China, the IRENA shows that renewables could meet 26% of the country's total final energy consumption in 2030. Under this scenario by 2030, the share of renewables in power generation and transportation will be 40% and 8% (including electricity), respectively.
2014 China Wind Power Review and Outlook, Chinese Wind Energy Association/Global Wind Energy Council (Beijing/Brussels: CWEA/GWEC, 2014), 36 pp. Contains major market development trends, policy development for wind power in China in the year 2014.
China Wind Energy Outlook 2012, Chinese Renewable Energy Industry Association/Greenpeace/Global Wind Energy Council/Chinese Wind Energy Association (Beijing/Amsterdam/Brussels/Beijing: CREAI/Greenpeace/GWEC/CWEA, 2012), 85 pp. Provides a comprehensive outlook on the current status of the Chinese wind energy market and industry with prospects for the future. Forecasts 400 GW of wind power installed capacity by 2030, and 1,000 GW by 2050 which should meet at least 17% of the national electricity demand.
Asia Development Outlook 2013 Asia's Energy Challenge, Asian Development Bank (Mandaluyong City, Philippines: ADB, 2013), 332 pp. Provides a comprehensive energy analysis of 45 economies in developing Asia and the Pacific. Forecasts renewables to meet about 13% of Asia's energy needs by 2035.
Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 5th Edition, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation/Asia Pacific Energy Research Center (Singapore/Tokyo: APEC/APERC, 2012), 424 pp. Presents projections of energy demand, supply, and carbon dioxide emissions to the year 2035, along with discussions of the energy challenges facing the APEC region. Forecasts, in its central scenario called "Business-as-usual," that the share of renewables will remain about 10% of APEC's primary energy demand by 2035. The share of renewables in the power generation mix will increase from 17% in 2010 to 22% in 2035.
Asia/World Energy Outlook 2014 - Analysis of low-growth scenarios for China and India and the climate change issue -, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (Tokyo: IEEJ, 2014), 192 pp. Provides various energy scenarios for the World, with a focus on Asian countries.
World Energy Outlook Special Report 2013: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency/Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (Paris/Jakarta: IEA/ERIA, 2013), 138 pp. Studies how the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam)' fuel mix will evolve over the next decades. Two scenarios are developed: the "New Policies Scenario" and the "Efficient ASEAN Scenario." By 2035 in the "Efficient ASEAN Scenario," renewables will meet about 21% of the region's primary energy needs and account for 22% of electricity generation. Possible achievements in the industrial, transportation, and buildings sectors are notably also described.
Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable ASEAN Energy Outlook, Greenpeace/Global Wind Energy Council (Bangkok, Jakarta and Quezon City, Philippines/Brussels: Greenpeace/GWEC, 2013), 104 pp. Develops a "Reference Scenario" and a "Revolution Scenario." In the "Revolution Scenario" renewables reach 77% and 92%, respectively, of the ASEAN' final energy demand and electricity generation in 2050.
Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook - Related Documents (in Japanese), Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (Tokyo: METI, 2015), 96 pp. METI's energy mix draft for 2030 targets a share of renewable energy in electricity generation of 22-24%.
PV Outlook 2030 (in Japanese), Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association (Tokyo: JPEA, 2015), 66 pp. By 2030, solar PV's installed capacity could reach 100 GW and supply 12% of Japan's electricity.
Target & Roadmap for Japanese Wind Power, Japan Wind Power Association (Tokyo: JWPA, 2014), 31 pp. Forecasts that wind power could supply 20% of Japan's electricity by fiscal year (FY) 2050. By FY2050, wind power installed capacity would reach 75 GW: half onshore/half offshore (including floating type).
Japan Climate Vision 2050: An energy future independent of nuclear power and fossil fuels [Scenario projections], Kiko Network (Kyoto & Tokyo: Kiko Network, 2014), 32 pp. Develops two scenarios in which renewables account for 32% and 58% of Japan's final energy consumption in 2050. In addition, in both scenarios renewables could reach 100% of power generation by 2050.
Modeling Clean and Secure Energy Scenarios for the Indian Power Sector in 2030, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley, California: LBNL, 2013), 29 pp. Develops three energy scenarios for the Indian power sector up to 2030; "Baseline," "Modest," and "Agressive." In the "Modest" and "Agressive" scenarios non-hydro renewables meet 30% of 45%, respectively, of the country's net electricity generation in 2030.
India Wind Energy Outlook 2012, Global Wind Energy Council/World Institute of Sustainable Energy/Indian Wind Turbine Manufacturers Association (Brussels/Pune, India/Chennai: GWEC/WISE/IWTMA, 2012), 40 pp. Develops three scenarios: "New Policies Scenario," "Moderate Scenario," and "Advanced Scenario." In the "Moderate" and "Advanced" scenarios 125 GW and 192 GW, respectively, of wind power installed capacity are expected in India by 2030. The report also deals with policy environment and grid integration issues for wind power in India, as well as domestic wind turbine manufacturing and wind power investment.
Possible Scenarios for the Indonesian Energy System 2030, Bandung Scenarios 2030 (Bandung, Indonesia: Bandung Scenarios 2030, 2014), 56 pp. Elaborates on four different potential scenarios of what the Indonesian energy sector may look like in 2030.
World Energy Outlook Special Report 2014: Africa Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency (Paris: IEA, 2014), 242 pp. Describes one of the most poorly understood parts of the global energy system (the sub-Saharan region), offers an authoritative study of its future prospects, broken down by fuel, sector and sub-region and shows how investment in the energy sector of the region can stimulate rapid economic and social development. Two scenarios are developed: the "New Policies Scenario" and the "African Century Case." By 2040 in the "African Century Case," renewables will meet about half of the Sub-Saharan region's primary energy needs and account for 44% of electricity generation.
Africa 2030: Roadmap for a Renewable Energy Future, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2015), 72 pp. In its REmap scenario for Africa, the IRENA shows that renewables could meet 32% of the continent's final energy consumption in 2030. Under this scenario by 2030, the share of renewables in power generation will be 49%.
West African Power Pool: Planning and Prospects for Renewable Energy, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2013), 96 pp. Develops four scenarios: a "Reference Scenario," and three variations of renewable promotion scenarios; "Renewable Energy Policy Scenario," "No Inga Scenario," and an "Energy Security Scenario." Forecasts that the share of renewables in the continental ECOWAS countries (Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo/Benin) could reach up to 52% of the power supply by 2030 compared to 22% today.
Southern African Power Pool: Planning and Prospects for Renewable Energy, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2013), 96 pp. Develops four scenarios: "Renewable Promotion Scenario," "Renewable High Cost Scenario," "No Grand Inga Scenario," and "No Carbon Finance Scenario." Forecasts that the share of renewables in Southern Africa (Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) could reach up to 46% of the power supply by 2030 compared to about 10% today.
Africa's Renewable Future: the Path to Sustainable Growth, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2013), 32 pp. Africa has the potential and the ability to utilize its renewables resources to fuel the majority of its future growth with renewable energy, but this requires a concerted efforts by policy makers to develop enabling frameworks to spur investment in renewables and facilitate market development through sound policies and regional cooperation. The report showcases examples where this effort is already happening and can be replicated.
Pathways to Deep Decarbonization 2014, Sustainable Development Solutions Network/Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Paris-New York-New Delhi/Paris: SDSN/IDDRI, 2014), 232 pp. Notably explores decarbonization pathways for 15 countries.
The Climate and Development Challenge for Latin America and the Caribbean: Options for Climate-Resilient, Low-Carbon Development, Inter-American Development Bank/Economic Commission of Latin America and the Caribbean/World Wildlife Fund (Washington, D.C./Santiago/Gland, Switzerland: IDB/ECLAC/WWF, 2013), 103 pp. Describes potential alternative pathways to reduce CO2 emissions in Latin America and the Caribbean. Renewables could meet between 60% and 80% of the region's primary energy needs by 2050.
[R]evolucao Energetica a Caminho do Desenvolvimento Limpo (in Portuguese), Greenpeace/Global Wind Energy Council (Amsterdam/Brussels: Greenpeace/GWEC, 2013), 41 pp. Develops a "Reference Scenario" and a "Revolution Scenario." In the "Revolution Scenario" renewables reach 67% and 92%, respectively, of the Brazil's energy demand and electricity power generation in 2050. Possible achievements in the transportation sector, as well as in terms of CO2emissions reduction, notably, are also described.
Renewable Energy Prospects: Mexico, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2015), 106 pp. In its REmap scenario for Mexico, the IRENA shows that renewables could meet 21% of the country's total final energy consumption in 2030. Under this scenario by 2030, the share of renewables in power generation and transportation will be 46% and 4% (including electricity), respectively.
[R]evolucion Energetica una Perspectiva Sustentable Sobre la Energia en Mexico (in Spanish), Greenpeace/Global Wind Energy Council/European Renewable Energy Council (Mexico/Brussels: Greenpeace/GWEC/EREC, 2013), 24 pp. Develops a "Reference Scenario" and a "Revolution Scenario." In the "Revolution Scenario" renewables reach 78% and 93%, respectively, of Mexico's energy demand and electricity power generation in 2050. Possible achievements in the transportation, heating and industrial sectors, as well as in terms of costs, notably, are also described.
Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in Australia, ClimateWorks Australia (Melbourne: CWA, 2014), 52 pp. Notably develops a "100% Renewables Grid" scenario in which solar power plays an essential role in meeting Australia's future electricity needs.
100 Per Cent Renewables Study - Modelling Outcomes, Australian Energy Market Operator (Melbourne: AEMO, 2013), 111 pp. Develops two scenarios; "Scenario 1" and "Scenario 2," featuring an Australian electricity market fuelled entirely by renewable energy resources by 2030 and 2050. Assesses for each scenario the requirements in terms of installed capacity and transmission networks, as well as the capital cost and impact on customer energy prices.
Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable New Zealand Energy Outlook, Greenpeace/Global Wind Energy Council (Auckland/Brussels: Greenpeace/GWEC, 2013), 99 pp. Develops a "Reference Scenario" and a "Revolution Scenario." In the "Revolution Scenario" renewables reach 95% and 100%, respectively, of New Zealand's final energy demand and electricity generation in 2050.
New Zealand's Energy Outlook: Electricity Insight, New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (Wellington: MBIE, 2013), 12 pp. Develops four energy scenarios. In the "Global Low Carbon," one renewbles meet almost all of the country's electricity needs.
Energy [R]evolution A Sustainable Turkey Energy Outlook, Greenpeace (Istanbul: Greenpeace, 2015), 96 pp. Develops a "Reference Scenario" and a "Revolution Scenario." In the "Revolution Scenario" renewables reach 79% and 90%, respectively, of the countryÅfs primary energy demand and electricity generation in 2050.
Renewable Energy Prospects: United Arab Emirates, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2015), 64 pp. In its REmap scenario for the United Arab Emirates, the IRENA shows that renewables could meet 10% of the country's total final energy consumption in 2030. Under this scenario by 2030, the share of renewables in power generation and transportation will be 25% and 1% (including electricity), respectively.
Global Scenarios
World Energy Outlook 2012, International Energy Agency (Paris: IEA, 2012), 690 pp. Presents authoritative projections of energy trends through to 2035 and insights into what they mean for energy security, environmental sustainability and economic development. Develops three main scenarios; the "Current Policies Scenario," the "New Policies Scenario," and the "450 parts per million of carbon-dioxide equivalent Scenario." In the "New Policies" and the "450 parts per million of carbon-dioxide equivalent" scenarios, renewables will reach 18% and 27%, respectively, of the world's primary energy demand by 2035, compared to 13% in 2010. In the "New Policies Scenario," the share of renewables in the world's power generation mix is expected to increase to 31% in 2035, compared to 20% today.
Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 - Pathways to a Clean Energy System, International Energy Agency (Paris: IEA, 2012), 690 pp. Is a guide for decision makers on energy trends and what needs to be done to build a clean, secure and competitive energy future. Demonstrates how technologies can make a decisive difference in limiting climate change and enhancing energy security. Shows how energy systems will become more complex, why flexible electricity systems are increasingly important, and how a system with smarter grids, energy storage and flexible generation can work. Three scenarios are developed, of which the "2 Degree Celcius Scenario" is the most ambitious. In this scenario, by 2050, renewables reach 41% of the world's total primary energy supply, and 57% of the world's power generation, from respectively 13% and 19% in 2009.
2012 Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable World Energy Outlook, Greenpeace/Global Wind Energy Council/European Renewable Energy Council (Amsterdam/Brussels: Greenpeace/GWEC/EREC, 2012), 340 pp. Uses a bottom-up, technology-driven approach to illustrate the possibility of 100% renewable power by 2050. Two scenarios are produced: a Reference one and an Energy Advanced [R]evolution one. Under this second scenario the share of renewable energy will increase considerably by 2050, accounting for 82% of world primary energy demand, and nearly 95% of the world's electricity.
The Energy Report: 100% Renewable Energy by 2050, World Wide Fund/Ecofys/Office for Metropolitan Architecture (Gland, Switzerland/Utrecht, the Netherlands/Rotterdam, the Netherlands: WWF/Ecofys/OMA, 2011), 256 pp. Investigates possible pathways to achieving 100% renewable energy, shaped by two fundamental questions: what is the minimum amount of energy needed to deliver various functions, and how can this be supplied in a sustainable way? Key pathways outlined are energy efficiency, electrification, and bioenergy. Projects that 95% of world final energy consumption, and 100% of electricity consumption will be met by renewables by 2050.
Global Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA, 2012), 1 884 pp. Examines major global challenges and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing adequate, modern, and affordable forms of energy; the plausible structure of future energy systems most suited to addressing the century's challenges; and the policies, measures, institutions, and capacities needed to realize sustainable energy futures. Develops 60 alternative pathways grouped into three different approaches: "GEA-Supply," "GEA-Mix," and "GEA-Efficiency." The share of renewables in global primary energy will increase from the current 17% to between 30% and 75% by 2050.
Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation Special Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge/New York, NY: IPCC, 2011), 1075 pp. Aims to impartially assess the scientific literature on the potential role of renewable energy sources in the mitigation of climate change. Reviews 164 scenarios and finds that the majority indicates a substantial increase in the deployment of renewables by 2030, 2050 and beyond.
2012 BP Energy Outlook 2030, BP (London: BP, 2012), 88 pp. Is neither an extrapolation nor an attempt to model policy targets. Is instead a reflection of judgment, where assumptions regarding policy, technology, and the economy are shaped by internal and external consultations. By 2030, the share of renewables will reach about 13% of the world's primary energy mix. One-fourth of the electricity will be generated by renewables in 2030.
2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, ExxonMobil (Irving, Texas: ExxonMobil, 2012), 43 pp. Offers ExxonMobil's vision for future energy trends. Seeks to answer the following questions: what types of energy will the world use, and how much? How will patterns of demand and sources of supply evolve in different countries? And how will new technologies affect the energy mix and overall energy efficiency? Forecasts a slight increase of renewables in the world primary energy mix, from 13% in 2010 to nearly 15% in 2040. Renewables are expected to account for 16% of the world's power generation in 2040.
International Energy Outlook 2011, United States Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration (Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOE - EIA, 2011), 301 pp. Assesses energy markets, focusing mainly on marketed energy, and does not reflect the potential impact of proposed legislation, regulations, or measures. Renewables share will reach 14% of the world primary energy mix by 2035, from 10% in 2008. In the power sector, 23% of the electricity generated in 2035 will be from renewables.
Global Wind Energy Outlook 2012, Global Wind Energy Council/Greenpeace (Brussels/Amsterdam: GWEC/Greenpeace, 2012), 52 pp. Examines the future of the wind energy industry up to 2050. Based on three analyses: a "Reference" scenario, a "Moderate" scenario, and an "Advanced" scenario. In the "Advanced" scenario, the annual wind power market will grow by 101 GW on average until 2020, and 121 GW until 2030 (both from 2011) to reach a total of 2,541 GW by 2030. This scenario also projects over 4,810 GW of wind power capacity by the end of the outlook period. The share of wind power in global electricity generation will considerably increase in both the "Moderate" and "Advanced" scenarios; from only 3.5% in 2011 to some 21-36% in 2050.
Global Renewable Energy Market Outlook (Executive Summary), Bloomberg New Energy Finance (London: BNEF, 2011), 9 pp. Presents forecasts on the future size of the world renewable energy markets with projections to 2030. Expects global investment in renewable energy projects to rise from $195 billion in 2010 to $460 billion in 2030.
Achieving Climate Stabilization in an Insecure World: Does Renewable Energy Hold the Key?, International Energy Agency - Renewable Energy Technology Deployment Implementing Agreement (Burlington, Massachusetts: IEA - RETD, 2010), 59 pp. Develops a "Reference Scenario" and a "RETD ACES (Achieving Climate and Energy Security) Scenario," which pursues aggressive greenhouse gas reduction targets consistent with achieving atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases of 400 parts per million ppm CO2 equivalent by 2100. In the "RETD ACES Scenario," renewable energy becomes the most important energy source sometime between 2030 and 2040. In this scenario, renewables will account for about 65-70% of power generation in 2060.
Renewable Energy in Industrial Applications: An assessment of the 2050 potential, United Nations Industrial Development Organization (Vienna: UNIDO, 2010), 60 pp. Finds that over 20% of all final energy use and feedstock in industry in 2050 could come from renewables, including biomass, solar thermal, and heat pumps.
Regional Scenarios
Prospects for the African Power Sector, Scenarios and Strategies for Africa Project, International Renewable Energy Agency (Abu Dhabi: IRENA, 2012), 60 pp. Provides early insights for Africa's power sector. Focuses on the period to 2030, with an outlook to 2050. Develops a "Reference Scenario" and a "Renewable Scenario." In the "Renewable Scenario," renewables will generate half of Africa's electricity in 2030 and almost 75% in 2050, compared to 17% in 2009. In this scenario solar and wind power capacity will reach 335 GW and 235 GW, respectively, in 2050.
Wind of Change: East Asia's Sustainable Energy Future, World Bank/Australian Government Overseas Aid Program (Washington, D.C./Canberra, Australia: World Bank/AusAid, 2010), 162 pp. Looks at the energy prospects of China and five major East Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Develops a "Reference Scenario" and a "Sustainable Energy Development Scenario." In the "Sustainable Energy Development Scenario" renewable energy sources will meet approximately 35-40% of the power demand by 2030.
Rethinking 2050: A 100% Renewable Energy Vision for the European Union, European Renewable Energy Council (Brussels: EREC, 2010), 76 pp. Aims to establish a long-term vision for the energy system in the EU, setting a pathway toward 100% renewable energy. Develops two scenarios "Moderate Price Scenario" and "High Price Scenario." By 2050, renewables could meet 96% of the EU's energy needs, notably thanks to a power sector 100% powered by renewables.
Energy Roadmap 2050 Impact Assessment and Scenario Analysis, European Commission (Brussels: EC, 2011), 192 pp. Explores the challenges posed in achieving the European Union's objective of reducing regional greenhouse gas emissions 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050. Develops seven scenarios, including a "Reference Scenario" and a "High Renewable Energy Sources Scenario." In the "High Renewable Energy Sources Scenario," the share of renewables in gross final energy consumption will reach 75% in 2050, and their share in electricity consumption will be 97%.
Power Choices: Pathways to Carbon-Neutral Electricity in Europe by 2050, Union of the Electricity Industry (Brussels: EURELECTRIC, 2009), 100 pp. Sets out to analyze the technologies and energy policies needed to attain the following goal: "Achieve carbon-neutrality in a cost efficient way through an integrated European market [while maintaining a] reliable energy supply." Develops two scenarios: "Baseline Scenario" and "Power Choices Scenario." In the "Power Choices Scenario" renewables will account for 40% of the EU's electricity in 2050.
Meeting the Balance of Electricity Supply and Demand in Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2011), 210 pp. Provides an assessment of the electricity sector in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2030. Presents an "Illustrative Country Expansion Plans Adjusted and Constrained Scenario," which forecasts that renewables will account for 54% of the region's electricity in 2030.
National Scenarios
China's Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley, California: LBNL, 2011), 83 pp. Explores possible pathways for Chinese carbon emissions to 2050, using a comprehensive range of energy consumption projections for different economic sectors. Presents two scenarios: "Continued Improvement Scenario" and "Accelerated Improvement Scenario." By 2050, the share of renewables in the power generation mix is expected to range between 27% and 34%.
Potential Secure, Low Carbon Growth Pathways for the Chinese Economy, China Energy Research Institute (Beijing: China ERI, 2011), 27 pp. Explore China's options for low-carbon pathways in the context of aggressive, near-term emissions reduction in other countries. Develops three scenarios: "Baseline Scenario," "Low Carbon Scenario," and "Enhanced Low Carbon Scenario." To achieve low-carbon development, by 2050 China will need to have 400-500 GW of new capacity each for wind and hydro, and 300-400 GW for solar.
Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable India Energy Outlook, Greenpeace/Global Wind Energy Council/European Renewable Energy Council (Bangalore/Brussels: Greenpeace/GWEC/EREC, 2012), 80 pp. Develops a "Reference Scenario" and a "Revolution Scenario." In the "Revolution Scenario" renewables reach 81% and 92%, respectively, of the India's energy demand and electricity power generation in 2050. Possible achievements in the transportation, heating and industrial sectors, as well as in terms of employment, notably, are also described.
From "Unplanned Power Outages" towards a "Strategic Energy Shift": A Report on Japan's Energy Shift since March 11th, Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (Tokyo: ISEP, 2011), 22 pp. Examines the current capacity for power supply in the Kanto region, as well as its past demand, and proposes public policies in both the short and mid/long terms. Forecasts that renewables will meet 100% of Japan power generation by 2050.
The Strategic Energy Plan of Japan - Meeting global challenges and securing energy futures (English Summary), Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (Tokyo: METI , 2010), 12 pp. Articulates the fundamental direction of energy policy in Japan, based on the Basic Act on Energy Policy. Targets a share of 13% for renewables in the country's primary energy mix by 2030. In the power sector, renewables will reach 20% of the electricity generated in Japan in 2030.
The Advanced Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable Energy Outlook for South Africa, Greenpeace/European Renewable Energy Council (Johannesburg/Brussels: Greenpeace/EREC, 2011), 108 pp. Develops three scenarios: a "Reference Scenario," a "Revolution Scenario," and "Advanced Revolution Scenario." In the "Revolution" and "Advanced Revolution" scenarios, renewables reach about 46% and 73%, respectively, of South Africa's energy demand by 2050. In these two scenarios renewables will account for 77% and 94%, respectively, of the country's power supply in 2050. Possible achievements in the transportation and heating sectors, as well as in terms of investment, notably, are also described.
Renewable Electricity Futures Study, volumes 1 to 4, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Golden, Colorado: NREL, 2012), 854 pp. Assesses a variety of scenarios that aim for specific levels of renewable electricity generation in 2050 (from 30% to 90%). Primary focuses on 80% renewable power, with nearly 50% of this from wind and solar PV. Identifies the characteristics of a U.S. electricity system that would be needed to accommodate such levels, and describes some of the challenges and implications of realizing such a future.
Annual Energy Outlook 2012 with Projections to 2035, United States Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration (Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOE - EIA, 2012), 252 pp. Presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices in the United States through 2035. Forecasts that the share of renewables in the U.S.' total energy consumption will increase from 7% in 2010 to 11% in 2035, and that renewables will account for 15% of the country's power generation at the end of the outlook period.
Reinventing Fire: Bold Business Solutions for the New Energy Era, Amory B. Lovins/Rocky Mountain Institute (Chelsea Green Publishing, White River Junction, Vermont, 2011), 352 pp. Models four alternative electric power systems, and develops a "Renew Scenario" which forecasts that 80% of the U.S.' electricity will be generated from renewables by 2050.
Indian Wind Energy Outlook 2011, Global Wind Energy Council, World Institute of Sustainable Energy, and Indian Wind Turbine Manufacturers Association (Brussels: GWEC, 2011), 64 pp. Current situation with markets, technologies, and resource potential. No India-specific scenario except the one for India already presented in the Global Wind Energy Outlook 2010, which projects that wind power in India could reach 65 GW by 2020.
Global Wind Energy Outlook 2010, Global Wind Energy Council (Brussels, 2010), 60 pp. Presents "Advanced" scenario shows global wind power capacity increasing to 2300 GW by 2030, providing 22% of global electricity supply.
China Wind Energy Outlook 2010, Global Wind Energy Council (Brussels, 2010), 55 pp. Projects that wind power in China could reach 230 GW by 2020, far beyond the present (unofficial) development target of 150 GW.
Energy Technology Perspectives 2010, International Energy Agency (Paris, 2010), 650 pp. An updated version of the widely-cited and comprehensive 2006 and 2008 editions (see below).
Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable World Energy Outlook, Greenpeace International and European Renewable Energy Council (Amsterdam and Brussels, 2010). This is the latest edition of a series of [r]evolution reports by Greenpeace dating back to 2007. The current reports suggests that by 2050, renewable energy could supply 95% of global electricity. Individual regional and national reports and jobs reports are all available as well.
Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable Energy Outlook for Canada, Greenpeace/European Renewable Energy Council (Toronto/Brussels: Greenpeace/EREC, 2010), 120 pp. Develops three scenarios: a "Reference Scenario," a "Revolution Scenario," and "Advanced Revolution Scenario." In the "Revolution" and "Advanced Revolution" scenarios, renewables reach 61% and 74%, respectively, of Canada's energy demand by 2050. In these two scenarios renewables will account for 95% and 96%, respectively, of the country's power supply in 2050. Possible achievements in the transportation and heating sectors, as well as in terms of CO2emissions reduction, notably, are also described.
[Set for 2020] Photovoltaic Electricity: A Mainstream Power Source in Europe by 2020, European Photovoltaic Industry Association and A.T. Kearney (Brussels, 2009). This report goes beyond scenarios to include interviews with industry experts. The report says a 12% market share for solar PV in Europe is achievable by 2020.
Indian Wind Energy Outlook 2009, Global Wind Energy Council, Indian Wind Turbine Manufacturers Association, and Wind Power Works (Brussels, 2009). Examines the potential for wind energy to 2030 and finds that wind power could supply up to 24% of India's electricity by that year.
Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, International Energy Agency (Paris, 2008), 643 pp. A detailed and wide-ranging set of global energy scenarios to 2050 covering all technologies. This report is the product of a huge undertaking and provides an authoritative reference. This is the second edition, following the first 2006 edition. Shows renewable electricity attaining a 46% share of global electricity production by 2050 under the "Blue Map" scenario.
Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable Global Energy Outlook, Greenpeace International and European Renewable Energy Council (Amsterdam and Brussels, 2008), 211 pp. A major effort at global and regional scenarios for renewable energy and energy efficiency. Shows renewable electricity attaining a 77% of global electricity production by 2050.
Global Wind Energy Outlook 2008, Global Wind Energy Council (Brussels, 2008), 56 pp. "Advanced" scenario shows global wind power capacity increasing almost 10-fold by 2020, from 121 GW in 2008 to 1,080 GW in 2020. Shows 3,500 GW of global capacity by 2050, which implies 21-30% of global electricity production from wind power by 2050, depending on demand forecast.
Solar Generation IV: Solar electricity for over one billion people and two million jobs by 2020, Crispin Aubrey, ed. (Greenpeace International, 2007). Projects 180 GW of solar PV worldwide by 2030 (up from 16 GW in 2008), with almost 800 million people obtaining their household electricity from grid-tied solar PV.
RE100. WorldÅfs most influential companies, committed to 100% renewable power.
Go 100% Renewables Energy Campaign. Global multi-partner campaign for local communities.
Australia 100% Renewables Campaign. Example of a national grassroots political campaign.(no longer updated)
Renewables 100 Policy Institute. Policy, education, outreach, "roadmap" study for "100% Renewable Energy California."
SCENARIOS (2013-2015)
United States
Europe
China
Other Asia
Africa
Other Countries
SCENARIOS (2010-2012) USED IN WRITING THE RENEWABLES GLOBAL FUTURES REPORT
OTHER SELECTED REPORTS FROM 2007-2011
RESOURCES AND WEB SITES DEVOTED TO 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURES [more to be added]
Go 100% Renewable Energy. Provides an interactive map of communities, regions, countries, and organizations that have set or achieved 100% renewable energy targets in at least one sector (power, heating/cooling, transportation).
Lund, H. Ostergaard, P.A. Stadler, I. 2011. "Towards 100% renewable energy systems." Applied Energy 88(2):419-421.
100% Renewable Energy - and Beyond - for Cities, HafenCity University Hamburg in partnership with World Future Council Foundation (Hamburg, Germany: 2010), 29 pp. sketches out the options and processes that have started to transform urban energy systems and that will power cities in the very near future.
SWM Renewable Energies expansion campaign - 100% green electricity for Munich, Germany by 2025. Stadtwerke Munchen (Munich City Utilities) aims to produce enough green electricity to meet the power requirements of the entire municipality of Munich by 2025.
From vision to action: a workshop report on 100% Renewable Energies in European Regions, Climate Service Center, Renewables 100 Policy Institute, and World Future Council (Hamburg: CSC, 2013), 40 pp. Intends to serve as a handbook for European policy makers wishing to pursue 100% renewable energy targets.
Washington, DC Government Agencies 100% Wind Powered. Reinforcing its commitment to environmental sustainability, Washintgton, DC Department of General Services has signed a new contract to entirely meet from wind power the electricity needs of its agencies.
Apple Environment. Apple's goal is to power all its facilities 100% from renewable energy sources. Since 2012, all data centers of the company have been powered by 100 percent renewable energy sources notably.
100% energia verde: l'energia secondo natura. An initiative of the Foundation REEF, 100% energia verde is an Italian green powerlabel which guarantees the sells of renewable electricity to its customers.
COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW PAPER (MARTINOT ET AL 2007) AND LITERATURE CITED
"Renewable energy futures: Targets, scenarios, and pathways," Eric Martinot, Carmen Dienst, Liu Weiliang, and Chai Qimin, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, vol. 32 (2007), pp. 205-239. (Link gives full web-based text and also free PDF download via "View/Print PDF" at upper right.) Reviews and synthesizes the results of published scenarios to 2030 and 2050 for the world, Europe, and selected countries. Focuses on the future shares of renewable energy (of primary energy, electricity, heating, or transport) shown in scenarios and poilcy targets. Provides a clear and detailed explaination of the two different (and equally valid) methodologies for measuring "share of primary energy from renewables" (the "IEA Method" and the "BP Method", also called the "substitution method"). Cites 143 references (which are listed and linked below). Copyright 2007 Annual Reviews. Note: article link provides complimentary one-time access for personal use. Any further/multiple distribution, publication, or commercial usage requires permission from the Annual Reviews Permissions Department (permissions@annualreviews.org).
Introduction
1. BP. 2005/2006. Statistical Review of World Energy. London
2. Int. Energy Agency. 2006. Renewables Information 2006. Paris
3. REN21 Global Policy Network. 2005. Renewables 2005 Global Status Report. Paris. [Annotation: A synthesis of the global market, investment, and policy situation with 320 references. Eric Martinot was lead author.]
4. REN21 Global Policy Network. 2006. Renewables Global Status Report 2006 Update. Paris
5. UN Dev. Programme, UN Dept. Econ. Soc. Aff., World Energy Counc. 2004. World Energy Assessment Overview: 2004 Update. New York
6. UN Dev. Programme, UN Dept. Econ. Soc. Aff., World Energy Counc. 2000. World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability. New York. [Annotation: A comprehensive reference on global energy issues.]
7. Johansson TB, McCormick-Brennan K, Neij L, Turkenburg W. 2004. The potentials of renewable energy. Proc. Int. Conf. for Renew. Energies, Bonn, Germany Eurosolar: Bonn.
8. Beck F, Martinot E. 2004. Renewable energy policies and barriers. In Encycl. Energy. San Diego: Academic Press/Elsevier Sci.
9. Geller H. 2003. Energy Revolution: Policies for a Sustainable Future. Washington, DC: Island Press.
10. Aiken DW. 2003. Transitioning to a Renewable Energy Future (White Paper). Freiburg: Int. Solar Energy Soc.
11. Sawin JL. 2004. Mainstreaming Renewable Energy in the 21st Century. Worldwatch Paper 169. Washington, DC: Worldwatch
12. Int. Energy Agency. 2007. Global renewable energy policies and measures database.
13. Int. Energy Agency. 2004. Renewable Energy: Market and Policy Trends in IEA Countries. Paris
14. Int. Energy Agency. 2004. Biofuels for Transport: An International Perspective. Paris
15. Int. Energy Agency. 2003. Renewables for Power Generation: Status and Prospects. Paris
16. European Renew. Energy Counc. 2004. Renewable Energy in Europe: Building Markets and Capacity. London: James and James
17. EUREC Agency. 2002. The Future for Renewable Energy: Prospects and Directions. London: James and James
18. Johansson T, Turkenburg W. 2004. "Policies for renewable energy in the European Union and its member states: an overview." Energy Sustain. Dev. 8(1):5-24
Global Scenarios
19. Greenpeace and European Renew. Energy Counc. 2007. Energy Revolution: a Sustainable World Energy - Outlook Global Report. [Annotation: A major global scenario effort integrating regional scenarios from around the world, with separate studies for U.S. and Europe available (see Refs. 45, 50).]
20. EC. 2006. World Energy Technology Outlook to 2050. WETO-H2. Brussels
21. Int. Energy Agency. 2006. World Energy Outlook 2006. Paris [Annotation: Widely-cited global energy scenarios, with general treatments and thematic insights alternating every other year.]
22. Int. Energy Agency. 2006. Energy Technology Perspectives: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050. Paris. [Annotation: A comprehensive description and analysis of energy technologies and a much greater range of scenarios than found in Ref. 22.]
23. Global Wind Energy Counc. and Greenpeace. 2006. Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006. Brussels
24. Hawksworth J. 2006. The World in 2050: Implications of Global Growth for Carbon Emissions and Climate Change Policy. London: Price Waterhouse Coopers
25. World Business Counc. for Sustain. Dev. 2005. Pathways to 2050 Energy and Climate Change. Geneva
26. Int. Energy Agency. 2005. World Energy Outlook 2005. Paris
27. Royal Dutch/Shell. 2005. The Shell Global Scenarios to 2025. Washington, DC: Inst. for Int. Econ.
28. German Advis. Counc. on Global Change. 2004. World in Transition: Towards Sustainable Energy Systems. London: Earthscan
29. European Renew. Energy Counc. 2004. Renewable Energy Scenario to 2040. Brussels
30. Aitken DW, Billman LL, Bull SR. 2004. The climate stabilization challenge: can renewable energy sources meet the target? Renew. Energy World 7(6):56-69
31. Raskin P, Banuri T, Gallopin G, Gutman P, Hammond A, et al. 2002. Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead. Report of the Global Scenario Group. Boston: Stockholm Environ. Inst.
32. Royal Dutch/Shell. 2001. Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050. London
33. Nakicenovic N, ed. 2000. Energy scenarios. See Ref. 6, pp. 333-66
34. Nakicenovic N, Grubler A, McDonald A, eds. 1998. Global Energy Perspectives. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
35. Royal Dutch/Shell. 1996. The Evolution of the World's Energy Systems. London
36. Johansson TB, Kelly H, Reddy AKN, Williams RH, eds. 1993. Renewable Energy: Sources of Fuels and Electricity. Washington, DC: Island Press
Europe Scenarios
37. EC Directorate-General for Environ. (DG Env). 2006. Economic Analysis of Reaching a 20% Share of Renewable Energy Sources in 2020. Brussels
38. EC Directorate-General for Energy and Transport (DG Tren). 2006. Trends to 2030: Update 2005. European Energy and Transport Scenarios on Key Drivers. Brussels
39. EC Directorate-General for Energy and Transport (DG Tren). 2006. European Energy and Transport. Scenarios on energy efficiency and renewables. Brussels
40. European Parliament ITRE. 2006. Security of Energy Supply - the Potentials and Reserves of Various Energy Source, Technologies Furthering Self-Reliance and the Impact of Policy Decisions. IP/A/ITRE/ST/2005-70. DG Internal Policies of the Union. Policy Department Econ. and Scientific Policy. Brussels
41. European Solar Thermal Technology Platform. 2006. Solar Thermal Vision 2030. Brussels: ESTTP
42. EurEnDel. 2004. Technology and Social Visions for Europe's Energy Future: a Europe-wide Delphi Study. Final report of EurEnDel project. Berlin: Inst. for Future Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT)
43. Oeko-Institut. 2006. The Vision Scenario for the European Union. Project sponsored by Greens/EFA Group in the European Parliament. Freiburg, Ger. [Annotation: Advanced scenario for the EU with highest renewables share by 2030.]
44. European Environ. Agency. 2005. Climate Change and a European Low- carbon Energy System. EEA Report No 1/2005. Copenhagen.
45. Greenpeace Int. 2005. Energy Revolution: A Sustainable Pathway to a Clean Energy Future for Europe. A European Energy Scenario for EU-25. Brussels
46. Ragwitz M, Schleich J, Huber C, Resch G, Faber T, et al. 2005. Analyses of the EU Renewable Energy Sources' Evolution up to 2020 (FORRES 2020). Karlsruhe, Ger.: Fraunhofer Inst.
47. Wuppertal Inst. 2005. Target 2020 - Policies and Measures to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the EU. Report on behalf of WWF Europe. Wuppertal, Germany
48. European Renew. Energy Counc. 2004. Renewable Energy Target for Europe 20% by 2020. Brussels
United States Scenarios
49. Kutscher CF, ed. 2007. Tackling Climate Change in the U.S.: Potential Carbon Emissions Reductions from Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by 2030. Boulder, CO: American Solar Energy Soc.
50. Greenpeace Int. and European Renew. Energy Counc. (EREC). 2007. Energy Revolution: A Blueprint for Solving Global Warming -- United States Report. Amsterdam
51. US Energy Information Administration. 2006. Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2030. DOE/EIA-0383(2006). Washington, DC
52. Bailie A, Bernow S, Castelli B, O'Connor P, Romm J. 2003. The Path to Carbon-Dioxide-Free Power: Switching to Clean Energy in the Utility Sector. Washington, DC: The Center for Energy and Climate Solutions; Boston: Tellus Inst.
53. Clemmer S, Donovan D, Nogee A, Deyette J. 2001. Clean Energy Blueprint: A Smarter National Energy Policy for Today and the Future. Boston: Union of Concerned Scientists
54. Brown MA, Levine MD, Short W, Koomey JG. 2001. "Scenarios for a clean energy future." Energy Policy 29(14):1179-1196
55. Interlaboratory Working Group. 2000. Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future. NREL-TP-620-29379. Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Oak Ridge Natl. Lab.; Berkeley, Calif.: Lawrence Berkeley Natl. Lab.; Golden, Colo.: Natl. Renew. Energy Lab.
Japan Scenarios
56. Citizens' Open Model Projects for Alternative and Sustainable Scenarios (COMPASS). 2004. Towards a Sustainable Energy Society Alternative Scenarios for the Future of Our Energy, Environment, and Economy. Tokyo: Inst. for Sustain. Energy Policies
57. Fujino J. 2004. Japan low carbon society modeling study: Results of first Japan-UK 2050 LCS workshop and further. Presentation at Quantifying Energy Scenarios of a Low Carbon Society--the Annual Energy Modeling Conf. of the UK Energy Res. Centre. December 5, Oxford, UK. Ibaraki, Japan: Natl. Inst. for Environ. Studies
China Scenarios
58. Zhang X, He J. 2005. Strategies and policies on promoting massive renewable energy development. Proc. China Renew. Energy Dev. Strategy Workshop, Tsinghua University, Beijing. Beijing: Tsinghua Univ., Inst. for Nuclear and New Energy Technologies (INET) and Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Center
59. Ni W, Johansson T. 2004. Energy for sustainable development in China. Energy Policy 32(10):1225-29
60. Kroeze C, Vlasblom J, Gupta J, Boudri C, Blok K. 2004. "The power sector in China and India: greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential and scenarios for 1990-2020." Energy Policy 32(1):55-76
61. China Task Force on Energy Strategies and Technologies. 2003. "Transforming coal for sustainability: a strategy for China" Report to the China Counc. for Int. Cooperation on Environ. and Dev. Energy Sustain. Dev. 7(4):5-14
62. China Energy Res. Inst. and Lawrence Berkeley Lab. 2003. China's Sustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions. Berkeley, CA: LBL and Beijing: ERI
Other Developing Countries Scenarios
63. RECIPES. 2007. Project Summary: Renewable Energy Market Potential in Emerging and Developing Countries. Final report of RECIPES project. Also 114 country data reports and 15 in-depth country reports. Brussels: EC DG-Res.
64. Manzini F, Martinez M. 1999. "Choosing an energy future: the environmental impact of end-use technologies." Energy Policy 27(7):401-14
65. Van Buskirk R. 2006. "Analysis of long-range clean energy investment scenarios for Eritrea, East Africa." Energy Policy 34(14):1807-1817
66. Ghosh D, Shukla PR, Garg A, Ramana PV. 2002. "Renewable energy technologies for the Indian power sector: mitigation potential and operational strategies." Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 6(6):481-512
67. Grover RB, Chandra S. 2007. "Scenario for growth of electricity in India." Energy Policy 34(17):2834-2847
68. The Energy and Res. Inst. (TERI). 2006. National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030. New Delhi: TERI Press
69. Asia-Pacific Energy Res. Center (APERC). 2004. New and Renewable Energy in the APEC Region: Prospects for Electricity Generation. Tokyo
Other Visions/Perspectives
70. Smil V. 2003. Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press
71. Scheer H. 2002. The Solar Economy: Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Global Future. London: Earthscan
72. Patterson W. 1999. Transforming Electricity: The Coming Generation of Change. London: Earthscan
Emissions Scenarios
73. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
74. Natl. Inst. for Environ. Studies, Center for Global Environ. Res. 2006. Greenhouse gas emissions scenarios database and regional mitigation analysis. Ibaraki, Japan
Scenarios and Modeling
75. McDowall W, Eames M. 2006. "Forecasts, scenarios, visions, backcasts and roadmaps to the hydrogen economy: A review of the hydrogen futures literature." Energy Policy 34(11):1236-1250 [Annotation: An excellent review of 40 studies with useful analytical frameworks for energy futures.]
76. Craig PP, Gadgil A, Koomey JG. 2002. "What can history teach us? A retrospective examination of long-term energy forecasts for the United States." Annu. Rev. Energy Environ. 27:83-118
77. EC Directorate-General for Res. 2006. Energy Futures: The Role of Research and Technological Development. Brussels
78. Nakata T. 2004. Energy-economic models and the environment. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science 30(4):417-475
79. Huntington HG, Weyant JP. 2002. "Modeling energy markets and climate change policy." In Encyclopedia of Energy. San Diego: Academic Press/Elsevier Sci.
80. Ghanadan R, Koomey JG. 2005. "Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California." Energy Policy 33(9):1117-1142 [Annotation: Illustrative example of defining, describing, and analyzing scenarios.]
81. Schwartz P. 1991. The Art of the Long View. New York: Doubleday.
82. IEA. 2000. Experience Curves for Energy Technology Policy. Paris
EU Countries Scenarios
83. Fischedick M, Nitsch J. 2002. Long-term scenarios for a sustainable energy future in Germany. Study conducted for the German Environ. (German version). Stuttgart: Wuppertal Inst.
84. Treffers DJ, Faaij APC, Spakman J, Seebregts A. 2005. "Exploring the possibilities for setting up sustainable energy systems for the long term: two visions for the Dutch energy system in 2050." Energy Policy 33(13):1723-1743 [Annotation: Revealing and comprehensive carbon-constrained country-level scenarios.]
Share of Primary Energy
85. Lenssen N, Flavin C. 1996. "Sustainable energy for tomorrow's world: The case for an optimistic view of the future." Energy Policy 24(9):769-781
86. Int. Energy Agency. 2006. Key World Energy Statistics. Paris
87. Goldemberg J. 2006. "The promise of clean energy." Energy Policy 34(15):2185-2190
88. Int. Energy Agency. 2007. Renewables in Global Energy Supply: An IEA Fact Sheet. Paris
89. Goldemberg J, Coelho ST. 2004. "Renewable energy-traditional biomass vs. modern biomass." Energy Policy 32(6):711-714
EU Targets
90. EC. 2007. EU-Energy Policy Data SEC(2007) 12. Brussels
91. EC. 2007. Renewable energy road map: renewable energies in the 21st century: building a more sustainable future . COM(2006) 848. Brussels
92. EC. 2007. Renewable energy road map: renewable energies in the 21st century: building a more sustainable future. Impact assessment. SEC(2006) 1719. Brussels
93. EC. 2007. Green Paper follow-up action: report on progress in renewable electricity. COM(2006) 849. Brussels
94. EC. 2006. A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy ("Green Paper"). COM(2006) 105 final. Brussels
95. EC. 2005. Biomass action plan. COM(2005) 628 final. Brussels
EU Countries Scenarios
96. Greenpeace Int. and European Renew. Energy Counc. (EREC). 2006. Energy Revolution: A Sustainable Pathway to a Clean Energy Future Netherlands Report. Amsterdam
97. Hennicke P. 2004. "Scenarios for a robust policy mix: the final report of the German study commission on sustainable energy supply." Energy Policy 32(15):1673-1678
98. Nitsch J, ed. 2004. Ecologically Optimized Extension of Renewable Energy Utilization in Germany. Summary Report in English. Berlin: German Federal Ministry for Environ., Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
99. Oniszk-Poplawska A, Rogulska M, Wisniewski G. 2003. "Renewable-energy developments in Poland to 2020." 2003. Applied Energy 76(1-3):101-110
100. European Environ. Agency. 2000. Cloudy crystal balls: An assessment of recent European and global scenario studies and models. Environmental issues series No 17. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities
Country Targets (Other)
101. New Zealand Ministry Econ. Dev. 2007. Powering our Future: New Zealand Energy Strategy to 2050. Wellington
102. South Africa Department of Minerals and Energy. 2003. White Paper on Renewable Energy. Pretoria/Tshwane
100% Scenarios
103. Kendall HW, Nadis SJ. 1980. Energy Strategies: Toward a Solar Future. Report of the Union of Concerned Scientists. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger
104. Le Groupe de Bellevue, ALTER. 1978. A study of a long-term energy future for France based on 100% renewable energies. Reprinted in The Yearbook of Renewable Energies 1995 (1995). London: James and James
105. Johansson TB, Steen P. 1979. Solar Sweden: an outline to a renewable energy system . Stockholm: Secretariat for Future Studies
106. Hafele W, Anderer J, McDonald A, Nakicenovic N. 1981. Energy in a Finite World. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger
107. German Bundestag. 2002. Nachhaltige Energieversorgung unter den Bedingungen der Globalisierung und Liberalisierung . Report of the Enquette Commission. Berlin
108. Lehmann H. 2003. Energy Rich Japan. Aachen: Inst. for Sustain. Solutions and Innovations (ISUSI)
109. Int. Network for Sustain. Energy (INFORSE). 2006. Global Vision 2050. Hjortshoj, Denmark
110. Sorensen B. 1999. Low energy consumption scenarios. Presented at IPCC Expert Meeting on Mitigation and Stabilization Scenarios, Copenhagen, 2-4 June. Roskilde, Denmark: Roskilde Univ.
Long-term Potential and Growth Rates
111. Int. Energy Agency. 2005. Variability of Wind Power and Other Renewables: Management Options and Strategies. Paris
112. Berndes G, Hoogwijk M, van den Broek R. 2003. "The contribution of biomass in the future global energy supply: a review of 17 studies." Biomass and Bioenergy 25(1):1-28
113. Fischer G, Schrattenholzer L. 2001. "Global bioenergy potentials through 2050." Biomass and Bioenergy 20(3):151-159
114. EC Directorate-General for Res. 2006. Biofuels in the European Union: A Vision for 2030 and Beyond. Final report of the Biofuels Res. Advis. Counc. Brussels
Distributed Power Generation
115. Bradford T. 2006. Solar Revolution: The Economic Transformation of the Global Energy Industry. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press
116. EC Directorate-General for Res. 2005. A Vision for Photovoltaic Technology. Report by the PV Technology Res. Advis. Counc. Brussels
117. Dunn S. 2000. Micropower: The Next Electrical Era. Worldwatch Paper 151. Washington, DC: Worldwatch
118. Borbely A-M, Kreider JF. 2001. Distributed Generation: The Power Paradigm for the New Millennium. New York: CRC
119. Lovins AB. 2002. Small is Profitable. Snowmass, CO: Rocky Mountain Inst.
120. Patterson W. 2003/2004. Keeping the lights on. Working papers 1-3. London: Chatham House
121. Brown LR. 2006. Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble. New York: W.W. Norton
122. EC Directorate-General for Res. 2006. Smart Grids: Vision and Strategy for Europe's Electricity Networks of the Future. European Technology Platform. Brussels
123. EC Directorate-General for Res. 2005. Towards Smart Power Networks: Lessons learned from European research FP5 projects. Brussels
124. Eiffert P, Kiss GJ. 2000. Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Designs for Commercial and Institutional Structures: a Sourcebook for Architects. NREL/BK-520-25272. Golden, Colo.: Natl. Renew. Energy Lab.
125. Eiffert P. 2003. Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems. NREL/TP-550-31977. Golden, Colo.: Natl. Renew. Energy Lab.
126. Int. Energy Agency. 2002. Potential for Building Integrated Photovoltaics. PV Power Systems Prog. Report PVPS T7-4. Paris
127. Int. Energy Agency. 2002. Distributed Generation in Liberalized Electricity Markets. Paris
128. See Ref. 75, p.1245
Hydrogen Combined with Renewables
129. Ramesohl S, Merten F. 2006. "Energy system aspects of hydrogen as an alternative fuel in transport." Energy Policy 34(11):1251-1259
130. Dunn S. 2001. Hydrogen Futures: Toward a Sustainable Energy System. Worldwatch Paper 157. Washington, DC: Worldwatch
131. Hoffman P. 2001. Tomorrow's Energy: Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, and the Prospects for a Cleaner Planet. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press
132. Rifkin J. 2002. The Hydrogen Economy. New York: Jeremy P. Tarcher/Putnam
133. Romm, JJ. 2004. Hype About Hydrogen: Fact and Fiction and the Race to Save the Climate. Washington, DC: Island Press
134. Heinberg R. 2004. Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World. Gabriola Island, BC, Canada: New Soc. Publishers
135. Scheer H. 2007. Energy Autonomy: The Economic, Social, and Technological Case for Renewable Energy. London: Earthscan [Annotation: Politically-oriented treatment of imperatives, barriers, and possibilities, with strong critique of status-quo.]
Advanced Storage Technologies
136. EC Directorate-General for Res. and Directorate-General for Transport and Energy. 2003. Clean, Safe and Efficient Energy for Europe: Impact assessment of non-nuclear energy projects implemented under the Fourth Framework Programme. Synthesis Report. Brussels
137. Eurosolar. 2006. Proc. First Int. Renew. Energy Storage Conf.: Towards Energy Autonomy with the Storage of Renew. Energies. Science Park Gelsenkirchen, Ger. Bonn: World Counc. for Renew. Energy and Eurosolar
138. Rechsteiner R. 2006. Management of Renewable Energies and Storage Systems - The Swiss Case. See Ref. 137
139. Lund PD, Paatero JV. 2006. Energy storage options for improving wind power quality. Presented at Nordic Wind Power Conf., 22-23 May, Espoo, Finland
140. Gonzalez A, O Gallachoir B, McKeogh E, Lynch K. 2004. Study of Electricity Storage Technologies and Their Potential to Address Wind Energy Intermittency in Ireland. Cork: Natl. Univ. Ireland, Depart.Civil Environ. Engineering
141. Greennet. 2004.
Cost and Technical Opportunities for Electricity Storage Technologies. Report for the European Commission Directorate-General of Energy and Transport. Chineham, UK: IT Power
142. Turton H, Barreto L. 2006. "Long-term security of energy supply and climate change."
Energy Policy 34(15):2232-2250
143. Saddler H, Diesendorf M, Denniss R. 2007. Clean energy scenarios for Australia. Energy Policy. In press
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